As Donald Trump begins his second term of office as President of the United States, his proposed trade tariffs of between 10% and 20% on all imports are still a very real possibility, as he made clear at the World Economic Forum yesterday (23 January). PG&H asked some leading names in the gift industry for their views.
“I’ve been hearing from my agents in the US that it’s increasingly likely that Donald Trump will impose a 10% import duty tariff on all imports,” says Courtney Wood, founder of Bubblegum Stuff.
“This is far less than the 60% he threatened on China imports, and 20% for goods manufactured in the UK in his election campaign. We will only truly find out now that he is in office. However, it’s definitely a major concern for growing our business in the USA.”
Continued Courtney: “I believe Trump is required to give a 100 day notice period before imposing such tariffs, so there may be a short window of time where retailers could stock up heavily. This obviously brings new risks, further strain on cash flow and, I expect, shipping costs to the US will increase with demand.”
He adds: “At Bubblegum Stuff we are planning to import adequate stocks and increase our prices this month to reflect the new tariffs which we believe will be coming in. Sadly, I feel that the biggest impact of the tariff will be on the US consumer who is going to be facing higher prices at the till.”
Boxer Gifts opened the company’s first USA warehouse in Virginia last June.“It was a baptism of fire on how to run a business in America,” explains Thomas O’Brien, managing director of Boxer Gifts.
“We’ve now run our first peak season and despatched over 3000 D2C orders, plus plenty of B2B in our peak week, which was no easy task for our small team. Boxer has a lot at stake Stateside,” continues Thomas. “We’re continuing to develop new and innovative fun product for the US market as we’re committed to our customers and team there.
“The hard thing for companies importing goods to the US is that there is no firm timeline, as what Trump ‘says’ and what he ‘does’ can be quite different. There is also no clarity that all items will be affected, and the gift and toy industries are rightfully concerned, as once the tariffs come in, they’re not likely to end quickly. Most of the Trump import duties added for his first term still apply over four years later.”
Explains Thomas: “A little known fact is that Boxer manages online market places and fulfils for an American company – importing from China – who have just the same problems as foreign importers. In the discussions I’ve had with our customers and other US companies, most are keeping production where it is, dealing with the new tariffs using price increases. It’s certainly a sea of change on the horizon, but we’re all in the same boat, as the majority of US companies simply can’t move their production easily to US soil either. Luckily for us, American’s love our crazy British products!”
Jules Vahrman, managing director of Wild Things, points out: “Trump is nothing if not unpredictable, and we see this going two ways. He could offer us a good deal just to drive a wedge between us and Europe. Or he could include us in a blanket tariff.”
Explains Julian: “We actually manufacture most of our products in the UK so we might – perversely – benefit if, as seems likely, he puts a larger tariff on China than the rest of us. I don’t know what our USA distributor will do as most of their goods come from China. We are the exception, so we may actually benefit – that is, if our distributor survives. Really though, more barriers to trade are the last thing we need after all the recent cost increases and the Brexit disaster,” adds Jules.
At Cotton & Grey, co-owner Paul Banyard predicts: “I don’t believe Trump will impose a blanket tariff on the UK. This seems to be one of his typical negotiating tactics – designed to put others on the back foot, prompting counter offers and revealing their positions before he has to take any definitive action. That said, let’s consider the scenario where Trump does implement a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports from the UK, as he has hinted. While we wouldn’t lower our prices, we could offer 10% in free stock at retail value to offset the tariff’s impact. However, if the tariff is extreme, it could be disastrous for everyone involved.”
Mark Howard, managing director of Puckator, adds: “The trade tariffs proposed by Donald Trump are certainly a concern in more general terms, but specifically for Puckator, as exports to the US are a small part of our overall turnover, we are not unduly alarmed.
“Conversely, the spin off with America adopting a more isolationist and protectionist stance are that container traffic to America ex-China is likely to reduce, which should help to limit the freight rate volatility we have seen in recent years. Also, at least for our market, during peak season, large volume orders from America have tended to put pressure on many of the factories we work with, but it is likely now that in 2025 this will be less of a factor, and the sometimes lengthy production times we have seen during peak season will shorten.
“It has to be said, that Trump’s unpredictability is not a positive in a global sense, but from Puckator’s perspective, the impact of his proposed tariff increases is a bit of a mixed bag, and may indirectly being some positives.”
Adds Scott Clarke, head of operations and sales at Rex London: “We have only very recently started to sell to the US market but had some plans to try and grow our sales there over the coming years by focusing on ensuring compliance to the US as well as the usual EU/UK standards. However, we put these plans on pause when it became clear that high tariffs might be on the way, especially ones focused on goods of Chinese origin. Despite the rhetoric, I don’t think it’s clear yet exactly what is going to happen. Once there is some certainty then we can reassess if the investment in expanding our offering there will be worth continuing with or not.”
This article appears in full on pages 31-33 in the February issue of Progressive Gifts & Home. CLICK HERE.
Above: Donald Trump is proposing to impose tariffs on companies who do not manufacture their products in the US.
